The Logic of Risk

• LOR9: Probability does not exist, or the subjectivist approach

  We introduce the subjectivist perspective on probability, featuring thinkers like Bruno de Finetti, Frank Ramsey, and Leonard Savage, who argue that probability is not an objective entity but rather something we invent to manage uncertainty arising from our limited knowledge.De Finetti’s “betting” approach interprets probability as the price one would pay for a chance to win a fixed payoff, showing how different beliefs produce different numerical values.From Laplace’s demon to everyday life, the notion of chance emerges because our knowledge is partial, compelling us to create probability and risk rather than discover them as objective realities. Are you ready to take the (subjective) risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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• LOR8: Propensity in play, from quantum mechanics to one-shot events

  In this episode of The Logic of Risk, we continue our discussion on the propensity interpretation of probability. We start by showing how Popper thought propensity could cope with the peculiar uncertainty of quantum mechanics, as well as with the problem of one-shot events, which frequentism could not handle.We then briefly touch Gillies' view, and introduce the reference class problem we will encounter often in our future conversations.Ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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  18:55
• LOR7: Probability as propensity

  In this episode, we move beyond the classical and frequentist definitions of probability to explore the propensity interpretation.We examine how Peirce and Popper viewed probability as an objective tendency of random phenomena.While this approach offers an interesting perspective, and it can be useful in fields like quantum mechanics, it also raises challenges, especially when dealing with single events. We also discuss historical bias and its impact on risk management and financial decision-making.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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  16:15
• LOR6: Frequentism, its pros and its cons

  In this episode, we delve deeper into the frequentist definition of probability, showing how probabilities emerge from limiting relative frequencies. We discuss why this approach can be useful for mass random phenomena but falls short for single or rare events—especially in risk management contexts involving heavy-tailed risks. Through examples, we highlight the dangers of relying solely on historical data and underscore the need for more robust tools to capture the true nature of randomness.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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  15:05
• LOR5: Moving toward Frequentism

  Welcome to the fifth episode of The Logic of Risk. After introducing the classical definition, we begin a review of the main schools of thought in probability. We’ll see that some are objectivist and others are subjectivist, plus a few that position themselves somewhere in between. Among the objectivist schools, we’ll introduce the most commonly used (and abused) one: the frequentist school.Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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  17:41

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